Despite the riotous instability of stock prices lately, some prognosticators are advising us not to worry. Sure, the stock market has experienced unprecedented growth without a significant downslide for seven straight years. And sure, the market has always been cyclical in the past.But we’re in the midst of a revolution, say the pundits, an information revolution. Spurred by personal computers and the Internet, the economy has morphed in a fundamental way. Information technology has ushered in a paradigm-smashing leap in productivity that may have made recession pass‚.
Not so fast, say those who’ve studied these issues. It’s not even clear that personal computers have affected productivity appreciably, let alone leading to the kind of improvements that would allow us to sail off with our mutual fund investments into a tranquil prosperity.

What’s the Truth
about Computers & Productivity?

Well, the numbers are telling. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show that, despite the personal computer “revolution” and the billions invested in the technology, productivity gains measured in output per hour have remained at a feeble annual rate of around 1% for the past 30 years, which pales in comparison to the brawny productivity growth of 3% annually experienced during the 1950s and ’60s.Common sense tells you that personal computers should increase productivity. They let you plan and budget far more effectively than a calculator or table. They make it possible to keep track of people and things far more easily than a roster or list. They help you communicate far more efficiently than a typewriter or telephone. They can tap far more research sources than the largest collection of periodicals or books.Yet even though some studies have shown that PCs have had a positive impact on productivity, and even though some experts contend that such intangibles as convenience and service don’t show up in the statistics, the fact remains that the productivity figures haven’t budged.

A Closer Look at
the Productivity Paradox

When you take the time to note your own work habits and those of people around you, you begin to see some of the reasons why this anomaly called the “productivity paradox” exists.Those memos with their fancy fonts and elaborate formatting take longer to create than the simple typewritten memos of the past. Likewise with those slick presentations adorned with graphics, sound effects, and animation.E-mail makes it easy to stay in the loop, but wading through scores of nonessential messages a day is a time sink.The Web can be an invaluable informational resource, but the temptation is great to jump from one site to another, each in turn less relevant to your work needs. Not to mention using the Web to shop, check out sports scores, and engage in chitchat.Then there’s the equipment maintenance. Whereas in the past only specialists got silicon under their fingernails, today everybody has to deal with software bugs, hardware conflicts, and system crashes. And when the machine is cooperating, it lures you to tinker endlessly in pursuit of PC perfection.Experts have tried to quantify all this. A few years ago, a survey by SBT Accounting Systems of San Rafael, California, showed that the typical computer user in a business setting wastes 5.1 hours a week on PCs. Another study, by Forrester Research of Cambridge, Massachusetts, showed that 20% of employees’ time on the Internet at work doesn’t involve their jobs.

Getting Smart about
Computer Use

I’m not saying that you should trade in your Pentium II machine for an IBM Selectric or prevent workers from having Internet access. It’s not the technology that’s the villain. It’s how we use it. Because the machines are so dumb-all they really do is add and subtract zeros and ones-we have to be smart in managing them.Here’s some points to keep in mind:

• Cheap computers that are more prone to breaking down will cost more over time than those constructed with quality components. So look at the “total cost of ownership” when buying PCs.
• Swinging the pendulum back a bit toward more centralized management of computer resources can save money.
• Make sure to make computer training available to all those who need it, including top management, so that they will be efficient at the keyboard.
• When tackling a project, balance substance and style. Looks count, but they’re not paramount.
• Establish policies governing e-mail and Web surfing. Guidelines are usually more effective in the long term than prohibitions, including the use of programs that block verboten Web sites.

Information technology is no panacea. For a case in point, just look at such unforeseen consequences as the Year 2000 fiasco. But such technology is not a monster either. PCs are merely an extension of ourselves, foibles and all.Reid Goldsborough is a syndicated columnist and author of the book “Straight Talk About the Information Superhighway.” He can be reached at reidgold@netaxs.com or http://members.home.net/reidgold.